Example simulationModeled estimate, not a forecast

45-seat ramen restaurant

Location: Alameda, California
Startup budget: $175,000
Average spend: $28
Scenario: Moderate demand · opens Mar 2027

Simulate your business Get the full simulation

Year 1 revenue: $748,000; 26,661 customers · 85/open day
Operating profit: $123,000; After labor, rent, COGS and overhead
Operating margin: 16.4%; Before owner pay and debt service
Break-even: Month 2; Startup costs paid back ~month 14

Timeline · 36 months

Watch your business over three years

Scroll the timeline and the shop changes with it: traffic, seasons and modeled events. Year 1 is simulated day by day; years 2 and 3 are projected from where year 1 ends. The further out you look, the wider the range and the lower the confidence — small surprises compound.

Loading your business in 3D…

Monthly revenue with the 10th–90th percentile band. Tap the chart to jump.

MonthRevenue range (10th–90th pct.)ExpectedConf.

Year 1 · simulated day by day
Year 2 · projected from year 1
Year 3 · projected — least certain

Forecast confidence is the share of 300 simulated futures whose revenue for that month lands within ±25% of the expected value. It measures how much the simulations agree — it is not a guarantee. The haze in the 3D view thickens as confidence falls. Years 2–3 assume your steady-state week continues with seasonality, in today’s dollars.

12-month operating model

Monthly revenue against operating costs. The shaded gap is operating profit (green) or loss (red).

RevenueOperating costsProfitLoss

Where the money goes

Year 1, as a share of $748,000 revenue.

Cost of goods$235,000 · 31%
32% of each sale
Labor$211,000 · 28%
180 hrs/week incl. payroll taxes
Rent$78,000 · 10%
$6,500/mo
Marketing$18,000 · 2%
$1,500/mo
Other operating costs$84,000 · 11%
Utilities, insurance, card fees, supplies
Operating profit$123,000 · 16.4%
Before owner pay, debt service, depreciation and income taxes.

Cash position

Starts at $21,000 after an estimated $154,000 of pre-opening spend.

Lowest point: $19,000 · M1
End of year 1: $143,000

Probability range

Instead of one exact outcome: 300 simulated first years where demand, spending and costs vary around your assumptions. 80% ended with positive operating profit.

Conservative10th percentile

$522K

revenue

−$34,000 operating profit

No sustained break-even in year 1

ExpectedYour assumptions

$748K

revenue

$123,000 operating profit

Break-even month 2

Optimistic90th percentile

$1M

revenue

$267,000 operating profit

Break-even month 1

Profitable yearsLoss years

Year 1 operating profit across simulated years

Year 1 revenue$522K – $1M

80% of simulated years fall in the shaded band · dot = expected ($748K)

Operating profit−$34K – $267K

80% of simulated years fall in the shaded band · dot = expected ($123K)

Analyst notes

Rule-based observations from the model — a preview of the AI analyst in the full report.

Strength
Breaks even at 64% of expected traffic
Once established, the model needs about 63 customers per open day to cover costs, against the 99 you expect.
Watch
Rent is 10% of revenue
Workable, but rent will weigh on slow months. Try the “Reduce rent 15%” scenario to see the sensitivity.
Strength
Startup costs paid back around month 14
Modeled operating profit recovers the estimated pre-opening spend within two years.

366 simulated days

Each brick is one day of your first year. Darker bricks earned more; dots mark modeled events. Select a day to step inside it.

LowerHigher daily revenueClosedModeled event

A Day Inside Your Business

Sat, Aug 7 · Month 6 · 128 customers

11 AMDoors open13
12 PMLunch rush20
1 PMTapering off11
2 PMSlow period3
3 PMSlow period3
4 PMSlow period6
5 PMDinner rush14
6 PMPeak demand22
7 PMPeak demand21
8 PMTapering off12
9 PMClosing down5

Each square ≈ 1 customer. Outlined squares were turned away at capacity (31/hour, limited by staff).

Today’s revenue: $3,602
Labor: −$672
COGS: −$1,129
Overhead: −$652
Est. operating profit: $1,149

Example modeled events

Pre-generated from deterministic rules to show how one-off events move a year. They did not happen in your market.

Coming next · Market discovery

Product concept preview — not live market recommendations

What if you don’t know what business to open?

Future versions of Brick Sims will search markets for opportunities based on your budget, location and target return.

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Modeled owner profit: $169K/yr
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Get early access to market discovery

Full simulation · early access

Want the full business simulation?

The prototype runs on your assumptions. The full simulation we’re building adds market data and a deeper model — delivered as a report you can take to a landlord, partner or lender.

12-month cash flow
Daily demand simulation
Competitor analysis
Location analysis
Sensitivity testing
Startup-cost model
Break-even analysis
AI recommendations
PDF business report

Early access is free. We’re inviting people in batches as the full model comes online.

What you just used

Prototype simulation · free

A first-year model from your assumptions and category benchmarks. The planned Pro analysis adds location and competitor data, scenario comparison and a downloadable report.

Planned

Planned Pro Simulation

Not available yet

$19per complete business analysis

12-month simulation
Location analysis
Scenario comparison
Full financial model
Downloadable report

We’re measuring interest before launch. No payment is collected.

Brick Sims is an exploratory modeling tool. Simulation outputs are estimates based on user-provided assumptions and should not be considered financial, investment, legal or professional advice.